Countries and companies seek to bypass the Strait of Hormuz

The oil market's top players are not waiting to see who gains control over the Strait of Hormuz, with countries and companies scrambling to bypass the waterway. The Iran war has highlighted the strait's importance as the center of the global energy trade, and the industry now has a huge incentive to reduce its dependence, regardless of the war's outcome.

Bloomberg Intelligence analysts wrote in a report that the 2026 U.S.-Iran war and Strait of Hormuz disruption may ultimately be remembered for accelerating global efforts to reduce dependence on the world's most important energy chokepoint. The ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran is quickly unraveling, with President Trump saying the U.S. would reinstate its blockade of Iran in the strait and proposing charging other countries 20% of the value of cargo shipped through it.

This threat may not materialize, as the International Maritime Organization says there's no legal basis for a toll, but it gives producers even more incentive to figure out alternative shipment methods. Commodity analysts at Goldman Sachs looked at seven pipeline and export-infrastructure projects under construction, planned, or considered potentially feasible, estimating that by the end of next year, the capacity could insulate more than 45% of the pre-war level of Persian Gulf producers' exports from any potential future Hormuz shocks.