US World Cup Host Cities See No Job Increase in June

The US is hosting the World Cup, and while there have been reports of a booming tourism economy in host cities, the June employment data tells a different story. Leisure and hospitality employment, which includes restaurant and hotel employment and is most sensitive to tourism trends, fell by 61,000 jobs in June. This category had been expected to see a surge in hiring to support the influx of travelers from abroad and within the US flocking to World Cup venues.

The report also revised down what had been reported as a huge surge in May employment in the sector, from 70,000 jobs added to 40,000. The month-to-month numbers can be volatile due to sampling error and seasonal adjustment processes, but even over slightly longer time frames, there is not much evidence of a World Cup-related hiring bump. The leisure and hospitality sector has shed an average of 9,000 jobs in the last three months, compared to an average gain of 13,000 jobs monthly in the 12 months before that.

It will be worth watching whether a World Cup bump shows up in other ways, such as retail sales and local tax receipts. Employment data for metro areas in June will be released later in the month, which may provide more insight into the impact of the World Cup on local economies. According to Jim Baird of Plante Moran Financial Advisors, many had forecast additional hiring needed to support the draw of travelers, but that either didn't materialize or was offset by losses elsewhere.