Talarico Leads Paxton 47%-45% in Texas Senate Race Poll

Three consecutive polls have shown Democrat James Talarico narrowly ahead of Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race. The latest poll, released Tuesday morning, has Talarico up 47%-45%. This lead is within the survey's margin of error.

The private theory among top Republican officials has long been that Paxton, while scandal-plagued, doesn't have the kind of problems that money shouldn't be able to solve. The plan is to drive up Talarico's negatives with Texas-sized ad buys and wait for GOP voters to come home. However, the cavalry of outside money still hasn't arrived for Paxton, as Talarico's team continues to pump out ads calling Paxton 'the most corrupt politician in America.'

Paxton raised $9 million last quarter, but many big-dollar donors for Sen. John Cornyn — whom Paxton beat in the GOP primary — aren't opening their wallets. Talarico, meanwhile, pulled in $30 million as he tries to become the first Democrat in more than three decades to win a statewide election in Texas.

Demographically, Paxton appears to be suffering a one-two blow, according to the Texas Southern survey. He's underperforming badly with white voters and Latino voters. Paxton is winning white voters by just 14 points, low for a Texas Republican. President Trump won them by 33 in Texas two years ago, according to exit polls. Trump also carried Hispanic voters by 10 points. Talarico is winning them by 19, Texas Southern found.